I think everyone’s more or less given you the ‘reality check’ already, but just to give you a basis for comparison, take a look at my experience:
- English & Chinese native speaker – i.e. kanji are rarely a problem for me in Japanese – with my English being better than my Chinese (main language)
- Spoke French at native level for 2-3 years (accent included, perhaps some minor adjustments aside) before starting Japanese
- Had already done some German and Spanish (~B1 level) before starting Japanese
In other words, Japanese was my sixth language, though it’s now my fourth most fluent language. It took me 4-5 years to get to this point, and I’m currently past the five year mark. I started in mid-Jul 2018, and I’ve just skipped retaking the N1 during the Dec 2023 session for a better score (I wasn’t feeling too well and didn’t feel like travelling to take an exam I couldn’t get full marks for). What I can do/have achieved so far:
- Passed the N1 with something like… 119/180 in Jul 2022 (not a great score, and honestly the N1 is B2-C1 standard – pretty variable, and you don’t need to understand absolutely everything to pass)
- Can write long formal emails in excellent keigo (though I’ll probably pick a few weird expressions here and there) – I’ll be doing an internship for half a year in Japan starting early next year, and although it’s supposed to be in English, I got hired after writing business-style emails back and forth for over a year
- Can understand at least 60-80% of most anime (especially in the isekai/fantasy and rom-com genres) without relying on subtitles, and by that I mean ‘I know 60-80% of the words that are being said and what they mean’
- Can hold long, complex discussions with my Japanese friend – including about university studies and social issues in Japan – with fairly little difficulty, though I will get stuck searching for specific words that I don’t know in Japanese
- Can write medium-length essays in Japanese (600-900 characters) about topics such as government welfare provisions and the importance of technology in society
- Can muddle my way through news articles, including editorials, and Japanese middle school biology textbooks (cell division etc.) with a little dictionary help
- Can push through the moderately technical stuff in linguistic studies on Japanese grammar and usage from Japanese universities, again with the help of dictionaries here and there (but that’s because I’m a language nerd and a lot of the terminology is familiar)
Stuff I still struggle with
- Onomatopoeia and expressions that usually aren’t written in kanji – there are just too many of them for my current frequency of exposure
- Literary expressions – with enough context, I should be fine, but I don’t read enough books to know them well
- Field-specific vocabulary – I’m not familiar enough with words you might see discussion political or economic phenomena in the news, even if context might sometimes help
In short, I’m vaguely at a C1 level, I think, but not much more, and I’ve been here for about 1-1.5 years.
My main immersion methods/sources of exposure:
- Anime (lots of it, especially isekai and rom-coms – see why I’m confident I’ll understand those genres?)
- Monolingual dictionaries
- Articles on Japanese, Japanese teaching and business writing and speech
Caveats:
- I’ve been consistently very busy over the past 5 years (~25-35h of classes a week + the assignments that go with that), so I probably could have gone faster if I had had a little more time (e.g. like a typical university student not in engineering school in France). If you’re more available than I am and have the freedom to organise your time (e.g. skipping classes because you know you can learn faster on your own), then maybe it won’t take you as many hours to get this done
Bottomline: I think getting to a level where you can handle everyday conversations without trouble is possible within maybe 2 years? Really depends on exactly what sorts of topics you’re expecting. However, if your definition is closer to what I can do – and I sincerely think I have a lot to improve on – then I think you’ll need at least 3 years, never mind the fact that kanji is often a sticking point for a lot of new learners.
I’m also one of those ‘fast learners’ – getting to native level in French took me 5-5.5 years (I could understand almost everything I read and heard, and I would have passed my C2 exam on the first try if I hadn’t misunderstood what would be considered plagiarism), and I could have gone faster if I had understood how to learn a language effectively in the first three years. That’s part of why my Japanese level ticks me off – it’s been five years, and I’m still not as fluent as I was in French. However, see, I think that goes to show that setting goals in terms of time, while useful, isn’t always that meaningful: decide instead what you want to do, figure out how to learn it effectively, go as fast as you can enjoyably, and you’ll probably end up progressing a lot better than you expect. I set myself a deadline because I have past experience learning a language to native proficiency, but I think that for most people, it’s far more rewarding to set ‘can do’ goals and watch as they get fulfilled. Timed goals can be a guide, but since they might not be realistic, you’ll often have to adjust them along the way.
Just my two cents. Take from it what you will, and perhaps use it to calibrate your expectations. All the best!