Ha! This is almost exactly what I was looking for, yes.
Unfortunately, I’m a huge tool, so after posting this thread (but before seeing your reply) I ended up creating an Excel simulation of what would happen with different error rates, numbers of lessons per day, etc. I assumed a rough baseline of 150 items per level based on A question to the fast learners ~8 days per level.
My big takeaways were roughly as follows:
- My review “pipeline” is already almost full. Even though my number of reviews per day is increasing right now, it will level off in the teens of levels. So I may have been worried for nothing.
- The point about not doing your lessons all on one day is really important! I’ve read this mentioned in other threads but I had kind of brushed it off, because, let’s face it, it’s hard not to want to see the cool new radicals/kanji when you first get the chance. However, breaking up the lessons into equal increments over the length of a level gave a maximum reviews-per-day of 259. Doing them all as soon as they became available yielded a maximum reviews-per-day of 455.*
- I’m really bad at Excel simulations. (Seriously, I had to rewrite my sheet three times because I realized halfway through that the way I’d set it up was internally inconsistent.)
*I’m making some simplifying assumptions about when they become available. This is also using a dubious “miss” rate - I’m assuming misses are IID, which is probably not correct, and affect 5% of reviews, which is probably too high. I’m also assuming a 7-day level time, which is probably not remotely correct - I average around 8 and expect to get longer. Bottom line: don’t use these numbers for anything important, but they were helpful to me.