@AnimeCanuck,
^^^ yes, this is true.
This is only true in certain circumstances.
I’m hoping this will help visualize what’s going on:
Think of your items as members of a track team in a group-marathon, where you win when 90% of your team members cross the finish line.
The race starts at the beginning of a WK level. But each runner doesn’t start running until you ‘unlock’ them.
Normally, we just rely on the team average (your average level-up time) to estimate when they will finish. There are a few reasons for that:
- The team members are different in every race (it’s a new level, with new items), so the new team members don’t have a track record that we can use.
- No matter how well the team members are doing at any instant, our average tells us that some of them are going to stumble a certain percentage of the time (i.e. wrong answers on reviews).
So, we rely on the average most of the time. If someone stumbles, we just assume that the average accounts for that.
But what happens if the team is taking longer than normal? By definition, the average is no longer a good estimate, so we have to evaluate things differently.
Since the team wins when 90% of the members have crossed the finish line, which guy is the most important one to look at in the race? It’s the guy that’s 90% of the way toward the back. If the guy in front stumbles, it doesn’t matter, because he’ll pick himself up again long before the guys at the back can catch up – i.e. you’re only as fast as your slowest member. The guys in the front are Apprentice4 kanji, the guys in the back are locked radicals. In fact, locked radicals haven’t even left the starting line yet.
So, depending on where your team members are in the race, a stumble may or may not affect the estimated time.
The reason your estimate is currently sitting at 6d20h is:
- Your current level is taking longer than average, so we switch calculation methods, and…
- …6d20h (plus the time already passed) is the fastest that the radicals at the starting line can finish. As long as more than 10% of your radicals are locked, it will sit at 6d20h.
Once 90% of your radicals are unlocked, then the 6d20h will start counting down. If you answer wrong on a low-SRS item (e.g. Apprentice1 radical), the estimated completion will increase, though never higher than 6d20h. If you answer wrong on a higher-SRS item (e.g. Apprentice4 kanji), it probably won’t affect the estimated completion time, unless all of your items are at about the same SRS level.