Scaling the review mountain part 6 - the race to zero

[l_l]

Thanks for solving that mystery. That is really unfortunate. I hope they fix it soon.

[milopiccolo]

Heya, I had a similar issue and found a decent but imperfect workaround. I haven’t read your script but it sounds like this approach might be useful for you too? I wrote it up in this post.

[l_l]

Too busy with other stuff to do WK this morning.

Also, I modified my stats script tonight to no longer bother querying the reviews API, since it is broken anyway. I’ll just have to manually keep track of how many reviews I do each day, which won’t be too hard normally, since I usually just do exactly 100 reviews every day. However, it means that it will be impossible to find out how many reviews I did in more complicated situations like what happened yesterday.

It also means that there is no longer any way to find out my accuracy, so I’ll no longer be posting accuracy. I can’t even track my accuracy manually any more since they also got rid of the session summary screen.

Thu Apr 27 2023:
Time spent: 0m
Reviews completed: 0
Reviews remaining: 319
Reviews in next week: 683 (+364)
Reviews in next month: 1168 (+485)
Level: 50

[l_l]

I previously wrote about suspiciously lucky million-to-one patterns in the review ordering on Wanikani. What I didn’t mention is that this wasn’t a one off. I’ve never seen anything quite that extreme, but it does seem like level-up kanji are suspiciously likely to all come up for review near the beginning of a review session.

Of course, you have to be careful with bias since humans are bad at estimating probabilities, it is easier to remember surprising events and forget when things don’t happen, etc. But this morning, it happened again, and while one unlikely event could be dismissed as a fluke, it’s really hard to do so when it happens multiple times.

This morning, I had a pool of 343 reviews and did 100 as usual. There are 29 kanji/radicals left to guru, out of which at least 12 came up for review this morning. I actually counted 13 while doing the reviews, but after going back and looking at the list of kanji, I only counted 12 that I remembered reviewing, so I may have gotten off by one while counting.

The probability of 12+ coming up in 100 reviews turns out to be 9.9%, which is unlikely but not unheard of and events of similar probability will happen eventually if you do reviews every day for weeks. However, that wasn’t the strangest part.

The strange part was how, as usual, there were a suspicious number of new kanji reviews bunched up right at the start. Specifically, I counted my 7th kanji review while the review counter showed 20 reviews completed (which means that the actual number of items seen could have been as high as 29, since WK keeps up to 10 reviews in flight at any given time). If you take the most generous assumptions and assume I had already miscounted by 1, so the actual number was six, and that I had done the maximum possible 29 reviews at that point, the odds are still 2.56%, which is very low, especially as this isn’t my first time seeing an unlikely fluke. If you merely assume the median value of reviews (24) rather than the max, that falls all the way to 0.99%. And if you assume I didn’t miscount and that actually was the 7th kanji I saw, the probability would be only 0.19%.

I know that Wanikani’s review ordering is supposed to be random and I’m probably just seeing random patterns and misremembering and randomly being really lucky and so on, and the numbers aren’t completely outside the realm of plausibility like I initially assumed before punching them into the calculator, but stuff like this really makes me wonder. Maybe I should try to find a way to do data analysis on the past review history to see if there are any suspicious patterns using a large rigorous data sample, though of course said data ends three days ago and can’t include today.

Anyway, here are today’s stats. As mentioned, I unfortunately can’t collect accuracy stats any more, but I can still manually track the time and number of reviews completed. I was a lot slower than usual today because I kept stopping to note down the number of kanji reviews seen since it seemed so suspiciously high at the start. Also, I guru’d six new kanji today, bringing the total to 12 and netting me a bunch of new lessons.

Fri Apr 28 2023:
Time spent: 22m L3
Reviews completed: 100
Reviews remaining: 270
Reviews in next week: 687 (+417)
Reviews in next month: 1175 (+488)
Level: 50

Current item counts:
Apprentice: 163
Guru: 385
Master: 359
Enlightened: 927
Burned: 5934

[l_l]

Despite what I said before, I do still think the review ordering actually is random, and that even that one-in-a-million day was probably some combination of mis-remembering and miscounting.

This morning, relatively few kanji came up, and only later in the session. Out of 326 reviews, 5/20 of the possible radicals/kanji came up for review, which is actually less than the expected median. According to the calculator, there is a 61% chance of six or more coming up for review under those circumstances instead.

I did guru one new radical and one new kanji (墳) this morning. The latter lead to kofun (古墳) being unlocked as a lesson. It’s funny because I’ve been thinking about trying to visit one in Japan ever since I happened to read about them years ago, and now I guess I know the kanji spelling for it on WK as well.

Sat Apr 29 2023:
Time spent: 19m L1
Reviews completed: 100
Reviews remaining: 248
Reviews in next week: 679 (+431)
Reviews in next month: 1178 (+499)
Level: 50

Current item counts:
Apprentice: 169
Guru: 370
Master: 367
Enlightened: 930
Burned: 5935

[kyouxren]

My race to zero is finally finished! Until some reviews will come up …

[l_l]

Sun Apr 30 2023:
Time spent: 16m L1
Reviews completed: 100
Reviews remaining: 232
Reviews in next week: 679 (+447)
Reviews in next month: 1176 (+497)
Level: 50

Current item counts:
Apprentice: 167
Guru: 362
Master: 371
Enlightened: 938
Burned: 5935

[fastchiller]

Congratulation to this big achievement :).

[l_l]

Guru’d six kanji today. 12 to go.

Mon May 01 2023:
Time spent: 20m L3
Reviews completed: 100
Reviews remaining: 239
Reviews in next week: 687 (+448)
Reviews in next month: 1184 (+497)
Level: 50

Current item counts:
Apprentice: 169
Guru: 364
Master: 370
Enlightened: 945
Burned: 5935

[l_l]

Only one kanji came up for review this morning. It was a bit weird, after getting used to seeing so many come up each morning. With 331 reviews and 15 kanji/radicals up for review, it looks like the odds of getting only one or fewer is only 3.1%, so just as unlikely as that previous morning I wrote about a while back, only in the opposite direction.

Tue May 02 2023:
Time spent: 15m
Reviews completed: 100
Reviews remaining: 255
Reviews in next week: 652 (+397)
Reviews in next month: 1173 (+521)
Level: 50

Current item counts:
Apprentice: 162
Guru: 363
Master: 368
Enlightened: 949
Burned: 5941

[l_l]

Today 4/14 items came up out of 326, which seems to be exactly the expected median number.

Wed May 03 2023:
Time spent: 16m L1
Reviews completed: 100
Reviews remaining: 278
Reviews in next week: 633 (+355)
Reviews in next month: 1160 (+527)
Level: 50

Current item counts:
Apprentice: 161
Guru: 368
Master: 362
Enlightened: 952
Burned: 5947

[Chocobits]

Flying along now!

At your current pace I think your Apprentice will dip below 100 sometime during the first weekend of June, and your numbers will look pretty darn close to someone’s that didn’t scale a nearly insurmountable wall of reviews!

[distantflower]

I’m cheering for you and everyone reading this thread!

Junior Senior - Move Your Feet (Official music video, HD)

[l_l]

Thu May 04 2023:
Time spent: 17m L2
Reviews completed: 100
Reviews remaining: 279
Reviews in next week: 607 (+328)
Reviews in next month: 1150 (+543)
Level: 50

Current item counts:
Apprentice: 157
Guru: 361
Master: 366
Enlightened: 956
Burned: 5955

[Cathm2]

Even though your remaining review count is fairly static, your “reviews in next week” has come down nicely (the monthly one’s pretty high still).

[l_l]

Fri May 05 2023:
Time spent: 17m L1
Reviews completed: 100
Reviews remaining: 268
Reviews in next week: 587 (+319)
Reviews in next month: 1134 (+547)
Level: 50

Current item counts:
Apprentice: 154
Guru: 364
Master: 365
Enlightened: 947
Burned: 5969

[Student-Bunny]

When you get everything under control, what will your max apprentice count be? (as in: some people make sure never to go above 100 apprentice)

[l_l]

As far as I can tell, my peak Apprentice count was 3189, right before I reset from level 60 to 48. However, even after resetting, my Apprentice count went up again almost as high. As far as I can tell, the post-reset peak was 3107.

Edit: Sorry, I think I misunderstood your question. Obviously my goal is 0.

[l_l]

Sat May 06 2023:
Time spent: 16m L1
Reviews completed: 100
Reviews remaining: 249
Reviews in next week: 586 (+337)
Reviews in next month: 1120 (+534)
Level: 50

Current item counts:
Apprentice: 152
Guru: 358
Master: 367
Enlightened: 952
Burned: 5976

[l_l]

The Great Leech Wall of Shame

Once I finally hit 0 reviews, I was planning to find a list of my most-missed reviews of all time and make a giant “wall of shame” post. However, since the API was taken down on April 26th, that won’t be possible. With no more data coming in, I figured I might as well make the post now with the data I do have.

The following is the top 250 most missed items, based on all the reviews I did from the start of this challenge (May 2021) up until April 25th, 2023, a total of 63591 reviews. I’m curious how these compare to everyone else’s.

1) 24 misses
  vocab	携わる To Engage In たずさわる

2) 21 misses
  vocab	現に Actually げんに

3-4) 20 misses
  vocab	苦しめる To Hurt Someone くるしめる
  vocab	従業 Employment じゅうぎょう

5) 19 misses
  vocab	歳月 Time さいげつ

6-12) 18 misses
  vocab	想定 Hypothesis そうてい
  vocab	田畑 Field たはた
  vocab	焦げる To Be Burned こげる
  vocab	称える To Praise たたえる
  vocab	供える To Make An Offering そなえる
  vocab	分裂 Split ぶんれつ
  vocab	由来 Origin ゆらい

13-17) 17 misses
  vocab	欠く To Lack Something かく
  vocab	弁償 Reimbursement べんしょう
  vocab	貴重品 Valuables きちょうひん
  vocab	腐食 Corrosion ふしょく
  vocab	顧みる To Look Back On Something かえりみる

18-26) 16 misses
  vocab	済ます To Finish Something すます
  vocab	破る To Tear やぶる
  vocab	構造 Structure こうぞう
  vocab	変人 An Eccentric へんじん
  vocab	位置 Position いち
  vocab	執着 Attachment To しゅうちゃく
  vocab	円盤 Disk えんばん
  vocab	懸命 Eager けんめい
  vocab	掲げる To Put Up A Sign かかげる

27-41) 15 misses
  vocab	資料 Material しりょう
  vocab	傷める To Damage Something いためる
  vocab	戒告 Admonition かいこく
  vocab	対等 Equality たいとう
  vocab	解ける To Be Solved とける
  vocab	致す To Do いたす
  vocab	秘める To Conceal ひめる
  vocab	慰謝 Consolation いしゃ
  vocab	推測 Conjecture すいそく
  vocab	唱える To Chant となえる
  vocab	陣営 Camp じんえい
  vocab	喪服 Mourning Dress もふく
  vocab	交互 Alternately こうご
  vocab	一昨日 Day Before Last おととい
  vocab	盟約 Pledge めいやく

42-63) 14 misses
  vocab	吹き込む To Blow In ふきこむ
  vocab	作用 Effect さよう
  vocab	患者 A Patient かんじゃ
  vocab	気に入る To Be Pleased きにいる
  vocab	御札 Amulet おふだ
  vocab	いつ頃 About When いつごろ
  vocab	収まる To Fit Inside おさまる
  vocab	記載 Record きさい
  vocab	統合 Unification とうごう
  kanji	葬 Burial そう
  vocab	介入 Intervention かいにゅう
  vocab	催告 Notification さいこく
  vocab	辺り Area あたり
  vocab	狭める To Narrow Something せばめる
  kanji	姓 Family Name せい
  vocab	受託 Be Entrusted With じゅたく
  vocab	漏れる To Leak もれる
  vocab	湯気 Steam ゆげ
  vocab	変換 Conversion へんかん
  vocab	甲斐性 Resourcefulness かいしょう
  vocab	主婦 Housewife しゅふ
  vocab	布巾 Dish Cloth ふきん

64-98) 13 misses
  vocab	慰謝料 Compensation いしゃりょう
  vocab	抑制 Control よくせい
  vocab	大気 Atmosphere たいき
  vocab	やり甲斐 Worth Doing やりがい
  vocab	首位 First Place しゅい
  vocab	甲斐 Effect かい
  kanji	審 Judge しん
  vocab	予測 Prediction よそく
  vocab	寄せる To Move Something Close To よせる
  vocab	見方 Way Of Seeing みかた
  vocab	危機 Crisis きき
  vocab	及び As Well As および
  vocab	襲う To Attack おそう
  vocab	冷える To Be Chilled ひえる
  vocab	揺する To Shake ゆする
  vocab	解説 Explanation かいせつ
  vocab	患う To Be Afflicted With わずらう
  vocab	殖える To Multiply ふえる
  kanji	褒 Praise ほう
  vocab	頑丈 Solid がんじょう
  vocab	懇親 Friendship こんしん
  vocab	理屈 Theory りくつ
  vocab	含意 Implication がんい
  vocab	開発 Development かいはつ
  vocab	炭鉱 Coal Mine たんこう
  vocab	惑う To Be Misguided まどう
  vocab	組織 Organization そしき
  vocab	模様 Pattern もよう
  vocab	伴う To Accompany ともなう
  vocab	乏しい Scarce とぼしい
  vocab	延びる To Be Extended のびる
  vocab	依頼 Request いらい
  vocab	在留 Residence ざいりゅう
  vocab	仕える To Serve つかえる
  vocab	囚人 Prisoner しゅうじん

99-132) 12 misses
  vocab	全員 All Members ぜんいん
  vocab	各々 Each おのおの
  vocab	混乱する To Be Confused こんらんする
  vocab	妨害 Obstruction ぼうがい
  vocab	作業 Work さぎょう
  vocab	災い Disaster わざわい
  vocab	裕福 Wealthy ゆうふく
  vocab	退ける To Repel Something しりぞける
  vocab	共同 Cooperation きょうどう
  vocab	褒める To Praise ほめる
  vocab	態と On Purpose わざと
  vocab	苦しむ To Suffer くるしむ
  vocab	請ける To Take うける
  vocab	対する To Compare With たいする
  vocab	早々 As Soon As そうそう
  vocab	広告 Advertisement こうこく
  vocab	怒らせる To Anger Someone おこらせる
  vocab	薄まる To Be Diluted うすまる
  vocab	型 Model かた
  vocab	整然 Orderly せいぜん
  vocab	添える To Append そえる
  vocab	法則 Physical Law ほうそく
  vocab	納入 Payment のうにゅう
  vocab	発射する To Launch はっしゃする
  vocab	先頃 Recently さきごろ
  vocab	緊急 Urgent きんきゅう
  vocab	施行 Enforcement しこう
  radic	boot Boot None
  vocab	工作 Handicraft こうさく
  vocab	収納 Storage しゅうのう
  vocab	穏当 Proper おんとう
  vocab	清涼 Refreshing せいりょう
  vocab	苛む To Torment さいなむ
  vocab	砂利 Gravel じゃり

133-178) 11 misses
  vocab	実感 Realization じっかん
  kanji	統 Unite とう
  vocab	創立 Establishment そうりつ
  vocab	屈む To Bend Down かがむ
  vocab	角度 Angle かくど
  vocab	優れる To Surpass すぐれる
  vocab	裂ける To Be Split さける
  vocab	布地 Cloth ぬのじ
  vocab	心得る To Know こころえる
  vocab	良好 Good りょうこう
  vocab	以前 Previously いぜん
  vocab	朗らか Bright ほがらか
  vocab	克明 Detailed こくめい
  kanji	功 Achievement こう
  vocab	お礼 Thanks おれい
  kanji	朗 Bright ろう
  vocab	割れる To Be Divided われる
  vocab	分解 Breakdown ぶんかい
  vocab	従来 Up To Now じゅうらい
  vocab	干渉 Interference かんしょう
  vocab	似合う To Suit にあう
  radic	line-up Line Up None
  vocab	絞める To Strangle しめる
  vocab	潔い Pure いさぎよい
  vocab	獲物 Spoils えもの
  vocab	及ぶ To Reach およぶ
  vocab	稲田 Rice Field いなだ
  vocab	及ぼす To Exert およぼす
  vocab	豪華 Luxurious ごうか
  vocab	推定 Estimate すいてい
  vocab	顔面 Face Of A Person がんめん
  kanji	挙 Raise きょ
  vocab	土砂 Sediment どしゃ
  vocab	順位 Ranking じゅんい
  vocab	期限 Term きげん
  vocab	指示 Instructions しじ
  vocab	乗馬 Horseback Riding じょうば
  kanji	授 Instruct じゅ
  vocab	中軸 Axis ちゅうじく
  vocab	比例 Proportion ひれい
  vocab	人里 Human Habitation ひとざと
  vocab	鑑みる To Be In Light Of Something かんがみる
  vocab	指揮 Command しき
  vocab	苛々する To Get Irritated いらいらする
  vocab	欠如 Lack けつじょ
  vocab	歳入 Annual Revenue さいにゅう

179-239) 10 misses
  vocab	傷む To Be Damaged いたむ
  vocab	土地 Land とち
  vocab	枠組み Frame わくぐみ
  vocab	弾く To Play A Stringed Instrument ひく
  vocab	連盟 League れんめい
  vocab	優秀 Superior ゆうしゅう
  vocab	暫く For A Little While しばらく
  kanji	渇 Dry Up かつ
  kanji	厄 Unlucky やく
  vocab	滝川 Rapids たきがわ
  vocab	澄ます To Make Something Clear すます
  vocab	果てる To End はてる
  vocab	一斉 Simultaneous いっせい
  vocab	指摘する To Point Out してきする
  vocab	印鑑 Seal いんかん
  vocab	描画 Drawing びょうが
  kanji	岳 Peak がく
  vocab	独特 Unique どくとく
  vocab	獲得 Acquisition かくとく
  vocab	貴い Valuable とうとい
  vocab	握手 Handshake あくしゅ
  vocab	懇意 Intimacy こんい
  vocab	鈍い Dull にぶい
  vocab	密か Secret ひそか
  vocab	景色 Scenery けしき
  kanji	噌 Boisterous そ
  kanji	岐 Branch Off き
  vocab	信託 Trust しんたく
  vocab	発揮する To Exhibit はっきする
  vocab	幾何学 Geometry きかがく
  vocab	最後尾 End Of A Line さいこうび
  kanji	謙 Modesty けん
  vocab	装う To Feign よそおう
  vocab	暴れる To Act Violently あばれる
  kanji	案 Plan あん
  kanji	緩 Loose かん
  kanji	諸 Various しょ
  vocab	筒 Pipe つつ
  vocab	街道 Highway かいどう
  vocab	嫌悪感 Unpleasant Feelings けんおかん
  vocab	嘆く To Lament なげく
  vocab	極端 Extreme きょくたん
  vocab	柔和 Gentleness にゅうわ
  vocab	事情 Circumstances じじょう
  vocab	大将 General たいしょう
  vocab	修士 Master's Degree しゅうし
  vocab	診察 Medical Exam しんさつ
  vocab	契機 Chance けいき
  vocab	補う To Supplement おぎなう
  vocab	採算 Profit さいさん
  vocab	商売 Business しょうばい
  vocab	得 Benefit とく
  vocab	悪人 Bad Person あくにん
  vocab	差し上げる To Give さしあげる
  vocab	領土 Territory りょうど
  vocab	背丈 Stature せたけ
  vocab	経由 Via けいゆ
  vocab	故意 Intention こい
  vocab	大幅 Big おおはば
  vocab	誇張 Exaggeration こちょう
  vocab	辛口 Spicy Taste からくち

240-322) 9 misses
  vocab	資本 Funds しほん
  vocab	以後 After This いご
  vocab	何月 What Month なんがつ
  vocab	規則 Rule きそく
  vocab	褒美 Reward ほうび
  vocab	就く To Settle In つく
  vocab	滅びる To Be Destroyed ほろびる
  vocab	衝突 Collision しょうとつ
  vocab	工業 Industry こうぎょう
  vocab	徹底 Thoroughness てってい
  vocab	派遣 Dispatch はけん
  vocab	潜む To Lurk ひそむ
  vocab	勝負 Match しょうぶ
  vocab	生殖 Reproduction せいしょく
  vocab	揚がる To Be Fried Up あがる
  vocab	過程 Process かてい
  vocab	屋敷 Residence やしき
  vocab	憶測 Guess おくそく
  kanji	載 Publish さい
  vocab	宗派 Sect しゅうは
  vocab	逃亡 Escape とうぼう
  vocab	芝草 Lawn しばくさ
  kanji	章 Chapter しょう
  vocab	免状 Certificate めんじょう
  vocab	兵隊 Soldier へいたい
  vocab	主唱 Advocate しゅしょう
  vocab	臨む To Face のぞむ
  vocab	沈黙 Silence ちんもく
  vocab	透ける To Be Transparent すける
  vocab	掃除機 Vacuum Cleaner そうじき
  vocab	依然 Still いぜん
  kanji	湯 Hot Water とう
  vocab	吹き出す To Begin To Blow ふきだす
  vocab	阻止 Obstruction そし
  vocab	受諾 Acceptance じゅだく
  kanji	眉 Eyebrows み
  vocab	現場 Scene げんば
  vocab	建設 Construction けんせつ
  vocab	座敷 Tatami Room ざしき
  vocab	非常 Emergency ひじょう
  vocab	浮かれる To Be Happy うかれる
  vocab	行為 Deed こうい
  vocab	一文字 Straight Line いちもんじ
  vocab	偽 Fake にせ
  vocab	措置 Measures そち
  vocab	早速 At Once さっそく
  vocab	陰気 Gloom いんき
  vocab	傷つく To Get Hurt きずつく
  vocab	処理 Deal With しょり
  vocab	迷い Hesitation まよい
  vocab	沼田 Marshy Rice Field ぬまた
  vocab	破片 Fragment はへん
  vocab	嫌悪 Disgust けんお
  vocab	事故 Accident じこ
  vocab	伸ばす To Stretch Something のばす
  vocab	立入禁止 Do Not Enter たちいりきんし
  vocab	渇く To Become Thirsty かわく
  vocab	崩壊 Collapse ほうかい
  vocab	荒々しい Wild あらあらしい
  vocab	華やか Showy はなやか
  vocab	症状 Symptom しょうじょう
  vocab	載る To Be Published のる
  vocab	人種 Race Of People じんしゅ
  vocab	豊か Rich ゆたか
  vocab	年中 Year Round ねんじゅう
  vocab	却下 Rejection きゃっか
  vocab	小包 Package こづつみ
  vocab	営業 Business えいぎょう
  vocab	刃物 Edged Tool はもの
  vocab	並 Ordinary なみ
  kanji	紹 Introduce しょう
  vocab	出所 Source しゅっしょ
  vocab	静々 Quietly しずしず
  kanji	滅 Destroy めつ
  vocab	封書 Sealed Letter ふうしょ
  kanji	詰 Stuffed きつ
  vocab	苦い Bitter Tasting にがい
  vocab	博覧会 Exposition はくらんかい
  vocab	硬貨 Coin こうか
  vocab	炭 Charcoal すみ
  vocab	崖 Cliff がけ
  vocab	節目 Turning Point ふしめ
  vocab	温厚 Mild-Mannered おんこう