I don’t usually do this for mystery novels, but I thought it might be fun to try to make a full unified theory attempting to explain everything going on.
Here’s my attempt - it’s probably very far-fetched.
The wording around who 若林 would show the will to phrases it as he’d cave “if it were for 珠世’s sake” - so let’s run with that and the person with the peak at the will wasn’t 珠世 but 猿蔵, off the argument that he can protect 珠世 that way (which 若林 would agree could very likely be necessary given its contents). Then 猿蔵 stages the threats on 珠世’s life – but he’s always around to make sure it’s not actually deadly. The reason he’s doing this is because – gasp! – he’s actually the second son of 菊乃, born after she handed off 静馬 to relatives, and himself handed off to a relative: 珠世’s mom, 祝子. So he’s raised with 珠世, but unlike her he got from his mom the whole backstory and revenge plan. And so he sees this will situation as the now or never time to enact this revenge, and stages these attempts on 珠世 to throw off suspicion.
So that’s why 若林 being able to talk to 金田一 could have prevented deaths, because it would have implicated 猿蔵 and uncovered this web of connections sooner. But in this telling, 猿蔵 kills 若林 with the poisoned cigarette to further throw off the scent.
The biggest confusing thing to me is what the switcheroo with the masks could possibly accomplish, and for whom. I’m theorizing here that the answer is that the two 佐清s are 佐清 and… 山田. The former gains safety, and the latter (thinks he) gains money.
佐清 at war happens to meet and recognize (lets say he heard enough of his mom’s story to be able to) 静馬 (let’s say by noticing a particular burn scar on his ass). And 佐清 learns about the revenge scheme, and perhaps even about 猿蔵. And so he knows that “佐清” will be marked for death on his return, and by the very close companion of 珠世. Then 静馬 dies, and this guy 山田 gets horribly scarred, probably both in a way 佐清 had a hand in. He pitches to 山田: hey, I feel awfully guilty for scarring your face, and I’m sick of my horrible overbearing family and I don’t care at all about the money, I want to run away with 珠世 - let’s swap: you can have my family’s fortune, I just want 珠世.
佐清 repatriates as 山田, 山田 as 佐清. 松子’s not in on it, but in a mixture of detail fed to 山田 and 松子’s greed, she wants to believe and remains suspicious but goes with it (later when the temporary swap back happens and the handprint is proved, she feels as much shock as anybody her suspicions are allayed).
Then the 佐武 and 佐智 murders would be 山田, or anybody else really, doing the murder to get in a position for more money, and 猿蔵 being the one who sets up the revenge-foretelling symbolism. 山田 doesn’t know the dangerous position he’s in until they’ve swapped out to “prove” his identity and try to steel the watch and swapped back afterward again, and the secret backstory is revealed. But by then it’s too late and 猿蔵 dunks him in the lake to form the ax.
Then from the real 佐清’s prespective – revenge is now satisfied, and he can come forward as “静馬” to get the money. They’re related enough to make it just barely believable with 佐清 “proved” dead, particularly if he himself didn’t make it through the war completely unscathed. And those most likely to buy this, 珠世 and his mom, can be convinced enough to make do and keep quiet. Then if the scheme all goes to plan, 佐清 inherits the maximum amount of money 静馬 can inherit, no competition for 珠世’s hand, and no revenge plot against him.
I think the weakest parts of this theory are that the 佐清->静馬 part of the scheme is very tenuous, it seems like it would be easier to just kill or report 猿蔵 if he knew he was going to be doing murders, and I also didn’t care enough to track the positions and importance of the brooch, watch, or button, when ideally they would be important somehow.
I think the strongest part is I like the misdirection around 猿蔵 not being 静馬 and the assumption that 静馬 must be around somewhere because of the revenge symbolism. I also think that 佐清 + some real guy named 山田 working together makes more sense than 佐清+静馬 when it seems like the latter two would be mortal enemies.
An alternative possible trick I didn’t fit in: I wonder if someone, most likely 球世, could have tampered with the 手形 in the temple? She’s from a family that used to run that temple, right? And that could explain some of the strange reactions in the print-comparison, and be what she could have said but didn’t at the time. In my theory above I suppose that would have just been “hey but can you take off your mask too though?” or something from her intuition suggesting they were different people, but that’s a little weak.